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Who’s leading the polls?
National polling average
Harris+2
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Election Day
40%
50%
Oct. 23
47% Trump Trump
49% Harris Harris
Nate CohnChief political analyst
With two weeks to go, the polls of the presidential election are starting to run out of room to get any closer. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied — with neither candidate ahead by even a single percentage point — in The New York Times’s polling averages of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Updated Oct. 21
Nate CohnChief political analyst
With two weeks to go, the polls of the presidential election are starting to run out of room to get any closer. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are essentially tied — with neither candidate ahead by even a single percentage point — in The New York Times’s polling averages of five critical battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Updated Oct. 21
Explore Electoral College scenarios
Both Harris and Trump have states they can probably count on to get at least 200 electoral votes, but they need to get to 270 to win. Let’s zoom in on seven key states in the middle where the vote was closest in 2020.
Harris 276
Trump 262
15
Mich.
<1
10
Wis.
<1
19
Pa.
<1
6
Nev.
<1
16
N.C.
<1
16
Ga.
+2
11
Ariz.
+2
270
If the polls change, or miss, in Trump’s favor
Trump could easily prevail if he gains ground in key states — or if the polls are already underestimating him. A shift or polling miss in his favor would not be uncommon, though of course that is not guaranteed. Here’s a possible scenario.
Harris 226
Trump 312
15
Mich.
10
Wis.
19
Pa.
6
Nev.
16
N.C.
16
Ga.
11
Ariz.
270
Trump is within 1 point of the lead in these states.
If the polls change, or miss, in Harris’s favor
Harris could win by a larger electoral college margin if she gains more ground or if the polls are underestimating her even slightly. Here’s one possibility.
Harris 292
Trump 246
15
Mich.
10
Wis.
19
Pa.
6
Nev.
16
N.C.
16
Ga.
11
Ariz.
270
Harris is within 1 point of the lead in this state.
Nate CohnChief political analyst
As of Monday morning, neither candidate even “leads” in North Carolina, Pennsylvania or Michigan by more than two-tenths of a percentage point. Neither can realistically win the presidency without winning at least one of these states. But the polls simply are not precise enough for a 0.2-point edge to convey any meaningful information. For all purposes, the race is tied; don’t feel any sorrow or take any solace in whether your candidate is on the right or wrong side of that 0.2-point gap. Updated Oct. 21
State averages and past results
States are shown in order of the closest current polling averages.
Swing states
Election Results | |||
---|---|---|---|
Polling Leader | 2020 | 2016 | |
N.C.› | Trump <1 | R+1 | R+4 |
Nev.› | Harris <1 | D+2 | D+2 |
Pa.› | Harris <1 | D+1 | R+1 |
Wis.› | Harris <1 | D+1 | R+1 |
Mich.› | Harris <1 | D+3 | R<1 |
Ga.› | Trump +2 | D<1 | R+5 |
Ariz.› | Trump +2 | D<1 | R+4 |
Other states
Election Results | |||
---|---|---|---|
Polling Leader | 2020 | 2016 | |
Maine 2 1 E.V. | Trump +3 | R+6 | R+10 |
Minn.› | Harris +6 | D+7 | D+2 |
Texas› | Trump +6 | R+6 | R+9 |
Ohio› | Trump +7 | R+8 | R+8 |
Fla.› | Trump +7 | R+3 | R+1 |
N.H. 4 E.V. | Harris +8 | D+7 | D<1 |
Va.› | Harris +8 | D+10 | D+5 |
Neb. 2 1 E.V. | Harris +8 | D+6 | R+2 |
N.M.› | Harris +8 | D+11 | D+8 |
Maine 2 E.V. | Harris +11 | D+9 | D+3 |
Nate CohnChief political analyst
With the polls so tight, the difference between “leading” or “trailing” by a fraction of a point might feel very significant. After all, it looks like the difference between whether a candidate is winning or losing. The election, however, is not decided by the polls; it’s decided by the voters. As a consequence, a fractional lead or deficit in a polling average is not the difference between whether a candidate is winning or losing, even though it may feel like it. Updated Oct. 21
How wrong might the polls be?
It’s normal for polls not to match the final results, sometimes by considerable amounts. The ranges in this chart represent the magnitude of each state’s biggest polling miss in recent elections, shown in relation to the current polling averages.
Biggestrecent polling miss | ||
---|---|---|
Mich. | 6 pts.(2022) | Range of polling miss |
Wis. | 9 pts.(2020) | |
Pa. | 5 pts.(2022) | |
Nev. | 4 pts.(2012) | |
N.C. | 6 pts.(2016) | |
Ga. | 2 pts.(2016) | |
Ariz. | 3 pts.(2022) |
Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
In 2016 and 2020, the polls underestimated Trump. But in 2012 they underestimated the Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, and in 2022 Democrats outperformed polling averages in several key midterm races. Past polling misses can give a sense of the magnitude by which current averages could be wrong, but they are not a guarantee of which way today’s polls may be off.
The latest Harris vs. Trump polls
Every poll here influences the averages above. Polls from “select pollsters,” which meet certain criteria for reliability, count for more and are shown with a diamond. You can filter by state and toggle to show only select pollsters.
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Ruth IgielnikStaff editor, polling
Polls by “select pollsters” are shown with a diamond. These pollsters have backgrounds that tend to mean they are more reliable. Also, polls that were conducted by or for partisan organizations are labeled, as they often release only results that are favorable to their cause.
How the averages have changed
Arrows to the left indicate polling gains for Harris; to the right, for Trump.
Current margin | polls | ||
---|---|---|---|
U.S. | Harris +2 | 36 | |
Mich. | Harris <1 | 9 | |
Wis. | Harris <1 | 8 | |
Pa. | Harris <1 | 6 | |
Nev. | Harris <1 | 5 | |
N.C. | Trump <1 | 9 | |
Ga. | Trump +2 | 6 | |
Ariz. | Trump +2 | 7 |
Nate CohnChief political analyst
Last week, we noted that the averages were tightening, but we were a little reluctant to say whether there was real movement. One or two good polls for Harris could have canceled out the tightening pretty quickly. The past week’s polls made a clearer case for movement toward Trump. Updated Oct. 21
From Biden to Harris
This chart shows how the polling margin has changed over the course of the campaign, first for the Biden vs. Trump matchup, and now for Harris vs. Trump.
May 30 Trump convicted
July 21 Biden leaves race
Sept. 10 Debate
R+6
R+3
Even
D+3
D+6
Biden vs. Trump +3 Trump Trump
Harris vs. Trump +2 Harris Harris
Nate CohnChief political analyst
Nationwide, Harris now has her smallest lead in our average since the Democratic convention. Most of the major national polls have showed a shift toward Trump since their prior surveys. The size of his gains shouldn’t be overstated — we’re talking about a point or so — but it has nonetheless been enough to make the race more or less truly tied. Whatever edge Harris might have had has vanished. Updated Oct. 23
About our polling averages
Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll represents likely voters, and whether other polls have shifted since a poll was conducted.
We also evaluate whether each pollster: Has a track record of accuracy in recent electionsIs a member of a professional polling organizationConducts probability-based sampling
These elements factor into how much weight each poll gets in the average. And we consider pollsters that meet at least two of the three criteria to be “select pollsters,” so long as they are conducting polls for nonpartisan sponsors. Read more about our methodology.
The Times conducts its own national and state polls in partnership with Siena College. Those polls are included in the averages. Follow Times/Siena polling here.
Maine and Nebraska award two electoral votes to the statewide winner and a single electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.) Historical election results for these districts are calculated based on votes cast within the current boundaries of the district.
Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times.
Credits
By Cam Baker, Laura Bejder Jensen, Ademola Bello, Dana Chiueh, Nate Cohn, Molly Cook Escobar, Annie Daniel, Ruth Igielnik, K.K. Rebecca Lai, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Albert Sun, Rumsey Taylor and Isaac White. Additional work by Kristen Bayrakdarian, Asmaa Elkeurti, Andrew Fischer, Andrew Park, Jaymin Patel, Dan Simmons-Ritchie, Ethan Singer and James Thomas.